Irshad Salim
NEW YORK: The Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) Coordination Committee on Sunday threw the PPP-led coalition government off balance by announcing its decision to sit on the opposition benches in the Senate and the National Assembly. MQM chief Altaf Hussain ratified the decision of the Karachi-based Coordination Committee. For many, it was a surprise move.
With the withdrawal of 25 MQM lawmakers from the National Assembly, PPP is now short of around 10 to 12 votes. Should there be a no-confidence move to replace PPP govt, PPP will have to bow out, which appears to be remote at this time as PML-N is on record having said it wont allow “destabilization” of democratic process.
Here is the position of the coalition: PPP has 126 seats, ANP – 12, FATA 11, PML-F 5, BNP-A 1, NPP 1. This totals 162 – that’s 10 seats short. Who’s stepping up to shore PPP coalition?
If Nawaz Sharif does not move a no-confidence motion, PPP will continue to lead but as a minority govt.
Observers say Nawaz will not make the move, in fact, he may use the opportunity to lend a lifeline to PPP on the promise of holding snap elections before next Budget announcement sometime in June 2011. As it is, come June – the Budget session, which is considered a money bill, PPP will hardly be able to have it passed in which case the incumbent govt typically resigns as a tradition.
Many observers feel Nawaz Sharif will in fact support the PPP Govt after guarantees for a complete reversal of its policies, corruption, etc. including a guarantee to implement Charter of Democracy and formation of a Charter of Pakistan which envisages a “new social contract” among federating units.
PML-Nawaz might even agree to join the treasury bench for the sake of ensuring that the GHQ gets a slap on it’s hand along with a similar slap on the hands of the smaller parties, pressure groups, particularly MQM, JUI-F and PML-Q.
Given Nawaz Sharif’s temperament, I feel he would not like to form a govt or be a part of the incumbent PPP Govt in which he cannot be the PM. Presently he is not even a MNA. Under the circumstances, he would rather play his cards sitting on the fence and keep preparing for the next polls.
PML-Nawaz feels they could be in a similar situation with the establishment, MQM & JUI-F playing similar games with PML-N in power in future. In that case, PML-N would be looking at PPP for support.
Question is; Is Asif Ali Zardari trust worthy?? Will he not stab Nawaz Sharif again? Is he capable of changing? These are wild cards.
Nawaz and his senior party leaders have time and again complained that in the 90s the country was moving towards a 2-party system, albeit PML-N and PPP. This was nipped in the bud by the powers to be, they complain. There are ample reasons to believe that both PPP and PML-N wish these parties weeded out.
Both parties want smaller parties to be eliminated in the political grinding machine as quickly as possible. But whether it can happen is questionable.
Meanwhile, January 3rd will be a manic Monday. A minority PPP-led government will be functioning. In the National Assembly session, it would be interesting to see how mature or immature our politicians have become or turning out to be..
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