SoDATA (South Data) — A data-driven estimation of end dates indicate that the impact of COVID-19 pandemic may end in Pakistan on or about June 6. There are over 11,900 confirmed cases with 253 fatalities.
Head of Pak military’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar has said that next 15 days are crucial in the battle against the pandemic and extreme care is needed to prevent the disease from spreading any further.
Nationwide lockdown has been extended to May 9.
All the estimates for the countries as to when COVID-19 – also known as SARS-CoV-2 will end, are as of April 24, 2020.
SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model was regressed based on the data from different countries to predict the key dates of transition during the epidemic lifecycle in different countries. The prediction is updated with newer data. Codes from Milan Batista and data from Our World in Data were used.
What about the estimates for some of the countries hardest hit within the band 30 degree north and 50 degree north latitude?
One of them, Italy in Europe, could see start of easing of the coronavirus lockdown on or about first week of May. There have been 25,969 deaths in the country so far.
In Spain, 22,524 people have died.
Across the Atlantic, and within the same band, 51,017 people have died in the US — highest in the world, with more than 890,000 confirmed cases reported so far. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a supplemental $484 billion relief package.
The bill, the fourth approved by Congress, includes $370 billion to replenish the Paycheck Protection Program, which provides funding for small businesses. It also earmarks $75 billion for hospitals that are losing revenue and $25 billion for expanded COVID-19 testing.
And some other countries in the region south of the 30-50 degree north latitude band could see the impact ending between May and June:
Turkey has reported 104,912 confirmed cases and 2600 deaths.
Iran has been the worst hit in the region south of the band, with 5,574 fatalities and over 88,000 confirmed cases so far.
Saudi Arabia has reported over 15,000 confirmed cases and 127 fatalities.
Data source shared by Hesham A Syed, Toronto, Canada
