DESPARDES — That USA would lose war with China in Pacific is a possibility which is increasing with every passing day, says a Pakistani defense expert.
According to him, the litmus to the increasing differential is the ongoing national response by China and the US.
A REPORT in the Daily Mail says: Eye-opening Pentagon war games revealed the US is vulnerable to China and an attack from the superpower would lead to the US ‘suffering capital losses’.
US defense sources told The Times that one Pentagon simulation based on the year 2030 when China would have new attack submarines, aircraft carriers and destroyers, resulted in the US being overwhelmed by the nation’s force. The threat is however more immediate than 2030, the article said.
According to the defense expert, the possibility of such an outcome is increasing with every passing day.
In his analysis, there are two pillars of US primacy: the international fiscal system with US Dollar as reserve currency and the US military.
“Within the US military the main pillars of its strength are space-based systems ( primarily satellites) and US Navy aircraft carriers”.
In his view, the “Chinese have adopted a well thought out strategy to neutralize these US assets through a strategy called A2/AD ( Anti Access/ Area Denial). Learning their lessons from First Gulf War, Chinese concluded that to defeat any US military intervention, the first step is to deny US, the ability to project and deploy a superior force within close neighborhood (sea or land) of China. Space based assets and aircraft carriers play important role in such a force projection”.
He further says that China “having developed a robust A2/AD capability, its military is adding capability for operations in far areas ( referring to expeditionary operations ). China has and is investing great deal of money and R&D in air and naval technologies to be able to defend near waters and project force to far waters/ areas”.
The expert spoke to DesPardes on condition of anonymity as he’s not authorized to comment officially.
According to The Times article, every US base in the Indo-Pacific Command region is considered to be at risk of attack now with the US island territory Guam a particular concern.
Taiwan is the ‘most volatile issue’ between the two nations, it said citing sources.
The expert tells DesPardes that in his opinion, Taiwan is the not most volatile issue but it has been kept on the boil to A) deny an open access to Western Pacific to Chinese Navy. B) Tie down portion of Chinese political, diplomatic and military capital away from US. C) Retain a flashpoint in the regional to intervene from time to time. “Taiwan is just a pawn in the power game,” he says.
According to the article, the Pentagon is developing more hypersonic weapons [more than five times the speed of sound] and arming marine units along China’s seas with anti-ship missiles in preparation.
The expert who calls the overall situation in the region “interesting times”, points out that in all the emerging technological fields including AI, Quantum computing/communications, 5G technologies etc, China is way ahead of the West and US. “The identified yaw is only bound to increase”.
The Pentagon analysis is expected to come to light in its 2020 China military power report this summer.
Tensions between the US and China have escalated in recent months as the coronavirus pandemic has ravaged the globe.
During the ongoing Corona relief operations, the expert says, many observers have noted the silent inaugural use of Y 20 strategic airlift aircraft by Chinese military. “It showcases the increasing military prowess of Chinese armed forces”.