Five Thirty Eight simulated the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives a a good idea of the range of scenarios their model thinks is possible:
The forecast model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day.
Weighing in on opinion polls, Berkeley professor Robert Reich took a swipe at them:
Reich’s take on these polls comes days after the rough (first) debate between President Trump (R) and challenger Joe Biden (D) was held on Tuesday. BBC called it “The night American democracy hit rock bottom”.
“The debate offered a real-time rendering of US decline.” it said.
Two more debates are scheduled to take place on October 15, and October 22, 2020.
The commission that oversees presidential debates says it will change the format to ensure the remaining two encounters between Donald Trump and Joe Biden are more orderly.
The announcement follows Tuesday’s ill-tempered debate that descended into squabbling, bickering and insults.
President Trump’s team has already criticized the commission’s plans.
Trump tweeted:
Renowned columnist George F. Will suggested canceling the remaining debates “for the sake of the country”.
Americans will vote for the 46th POTUS (President of the United States) on the first Tuesday of November.
