Jonathan Portes in The Guardian: In the immediate aftermath of this summer’s riots, what did the British public consider to be the most important issue facing the country? Immigration, the polls said, replacing the economy at the top of the worry‑list for the first time since 2017. So, what have politicians said they’ll do about it? The new Labour government wants to reduce it. Conservative leadership hopeful Robert Jenrick wants to cut it to the tens of thousands. Not to be outdone, Reform would freeze “non-essential” immigration entirely.
But the terms of this debate are wrong. The option to dramatically reduce or cut off immigration is an illusion. People are going to come here from overseas whatever we do, and what’s more, we need them to. No, the real choice is between a chaotic, punitive system based on political dishonesty, and a well-managed one that works, taking advantage of our good fortune in being a place that can draw people from around the world.
Despite massive policy changes, lurching from relative openness under New Labour in the early 2000s, to Theresa May’s “hostile environment” of the 2010s, to the end of free movement and the introduction of Boris Johnson’s surprisingly liberal system in the 2020s, migration to the UK has been very high by historical standards for the last 25 years. In this we are not an outlier: despite our very different histories and cultures, the proportion of the population that originates from abroad is almost identical to that in France or Germany.
This tells us that there are other forces than mere policy at work here – and they’re economic and demographic. The native-born labour force is already shrinking in almost all advanced economies; in the UK, essentially all the growth in employment over the last two decades – more than 4 million people – is accounted for by those born abroad. With fertility rates far below replacement level and the number of Britons over 65 set to increase by 5 million over the next 20 years, these pressures will only intensify. Without immigration, the numbers of people paying tax will shrink just as the numbers needing state support in later life are growing. It’s not a sustainable mix.
More here.
