China will overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated.
A think tank forecast that the economic fallout in the US from Covid-19 will help China gain an edge in the world economy –contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the pandemic have been cited as one of the major reasons.
“Skillful management of the pandemic,” with its strict early lockdown, and hits to long-term growth in the West meant China’s relative economic performance had improved,” the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said in an annual report published on Saturday and cited by TRT World.
“That’s a challenge down the alley of new world order,” says an observer. “It was coming though,” in his view.
Earlier this month, a 575-page report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission — created by Congress to track and anticipate threats from China — characterized the world’s second-largest economy as a threat to the current international order that has American values at its core,
“Imagine how upset the US establishment is over this. They’ve tried everything, and still China keeps growing,” a US-China expert based in Malaysia says.
He calls it US’ “displacement anxiety.”
“The last chapter of my latest book ‘China’s Belt and Road Vision’ (in which one chapter is dedicated to CPEC), explains it.”
In reality, China has already done it, according to a Pakistani defense expert and analyst.
“Take the standard of PPP, the time in which they do a project, the return on every dollar spent, they are way ahead of the USA and other leading industrialized nations.”
Notwithstanding their deficiencies in few cutting edge technologies like aeroengines and computer chips –due to lack of expertise in material sources, “the gap is closing fast,” he says.
According to him, “China is already leading the world” in the field of emerging technologies like AI, quantum computing, renewable energies, space and electric propulsion.
“The real battle is and will be fought in the field of technology, and Confucius thinkers will not oblige the West with a physical one, their favorite,” he adds.
“In my view, 2030 will mark the real exchange of baton of world leadership.”
There’s “a difference between becoming numero uno (number #1) in global economy and global supremacy”, According to a Gulf analyst.
Whether China would replace US as #1 economy (in dollar terms) or not, the important question is will this translate into political influence for China, says an Islamabad-based Pakistani security analyst.
“I am skeptical whether China will be able to displace or even reverse US political influence at the regional level.”
According to him, “much can happen between now and 2028.”
“New power centers could emerge that will impact Chinese and US economies, or for that matter domestic situation in both US and China could deteriorate to a point that can fuel secessionist movements.”
In his view, “all factors, domestic and external matter,” …”because economy is connected with these factors.”
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