The Conviction Effect: National Polls Show Slight Shift Toward Joe Biden

“None of these shifts are massive; these changes are within the margin of error. Time will tell.”

by Liz Wolfe at Reason: In the roughly week and a half since former president (and presumptive Republican presidential nominee) Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felonies related to falsifying records to hide hush-money payments to a porn star, numerous national polls have indicated that voters have moved slightly toward incumbent president (and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee) Joe Biden.

A HarrisX/Forbes poll found Biden and Trump each getting a one-point bump after the verdict. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found a one-point bump for Biden, with Trump losing a point. A Morning Consult poll found a one-point bump for Biden, with Trump neither gaining nor losing any ground. And an Echelon Insights poll found a two-point Biden bump, with Trump support staying flat. (All poll results can be found in a chart here.)

The New York Times recontacted some 2,000 respondents they had polled this spring and found that “the group favored Mr. Trump by three points when originally interviewed in April and May, but this week they backed him by only one point.”

More here.

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